During his discussion with the young people Oleksandr Chaly noted that the problem of last three months lies in a fact that Ukraine actually implements neither a war strategy nor a peace strategy. He highlighted that today it is very important to choose one consistent strategy because any successful communication is based on strategy. «No strategy, no communication», he highlighted.
According to the experienced expert there are only two scenarios how the events may develop – «a cold peace» or «a cold war». He says that «the essence of cold peace» implies that Ukraine together with the West finds a strategic agreement with Russia to stabilize the whole situation and builds certain truce. «Russia in «a cold peace» is a part of problem solution», the expert says. «In the second scenario of «a cold war» Russia is a major problem for Ukraine. Ukraine builds a coalition with the West against Russia», Mr. Chaly says.
The experienced politician believes that each of these scenarios has its own pros and cons. However he emphasizes that Ukraine should choose one scenario. «I am against a double game, when we have a war, and we sell weapons to Russia. At the same time we demand from the West not to do so. We demand sanctions from the West, but no single personal sanction was introduced by us. This is unacceptable», he highlighted.
Oleksandr Chaly emphasizes that once we choose one of these scenarios, it should be communicated honestly to the people. «If we freeze economic relations with Russia, we have to realize that our GDP will drop not by 5 %, but by 25 %, but then we introduce for Russia the biggest sanctions than the West can impose ever. However then, the honest conversation with the society should be there», he says.
«The problem of communication today is that no scenario was chosen so far. Communication has to be aimed to achieve some strategic goal. If we choose «a cold war» scenario, we should realize that in the nearest years we should forget that Donbass de facto is a part of Ukraine. It will become Transnistria. The key problem of «a cold war» scenario is where the border will lie? If we do not think about that and do not take the decision, Russia will take it for us», Oleksandr Chaly alerts.
«I emphasize that our elite has to choose consciously a certain scenario, communicate it to the people and take responsibility for this scenario. The elite has to make strategic communication, not the communications that contradict to each other», he concluded.
FOR INFORMATION:
«Open World» Discussion Club is an educational project of Arseniy Yatsenyuk Open Ukraine Foundation for socially active young people. The purpose of the project is to educate new generation of responsible leaders. Each month the Foundation initiates lectures with renowned experts, political and public figures for discussing efficient solutions to social problems in Ukraine and the world.
Oleksandr CHALY – Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine. Honorary lawyer of Ukraine, Ph.D. in law. President of Grant Thornton Ukraine. Member of top-level international commission «Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative», member of Supervisory Board of United World International Fund and co-chairman of Working group of National Convention on the EU in Ukraine.
From 1993 to 2008 he worked at diplomatic service. Was the head of Treaty and Law Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, a member of Ukraine’s Delegation on negotiations with Russia and Romania with regard to concluding basic political agreements. Later Mr.Chaly was appointed the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to Romania.
From 1998 to 2004 he was the First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and the State Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine responsible for integration into the EU. In 2006-2008 he worked as the Deputy Head of Presidential Secretariat of Ukraine in charge of foreign policy and as the Foreign Policy Counsellor to the President of Ukraine. Since January 1, 2012 – President of Grant Thornton Ukraine.
